I spent most of yesterday trying to come to terms with the fact that my political party, for the time being, had been kicked well into the long grass, and at the same time that David Cameron would become Prime Minister in the next few days. Mild relief was the fact that the Conservatives didn’t get an outright majority, which would have meant a Tory government starting yesterday would have had a much lower threshold of ‘democratic resistance’ to its policies over the coming term of parliament. The lower threshold of opposition would have made it easier for David Cameron to make deep spending cuts in a more ruthless way. So at the very least, one comfort to take out of this election is that there’s no majority Conservative government this morning.

Nick Clegg made it clear yesterday that he would give the Conservatives the first shot at forming a governing coalition with him. Neither Labour or the Tories won the required majority of seats, or 326 to be exact, on Thursday to form a government on their own (Conservatives have 306, Labour are on 258) so the 57 Liberal Democrat seats when added to the seats of the Tories create an overall majority which allows David Cameron to be Prime Minister. A Liberal/Labour coalition would only have 315 seats, so other small parties would have to be drafted in to make that work. In return for Clegg’s overtures yesterday, Cameron practically love-bombed the Liberal Democrats and made a “big, comprehensive offer” to help Clegg implement some of the policies in his election manifesto.

So for the coming hours at least, it seems that Clegg & Cameron will come up with a deal allowing the Tories to run the country for the first time since 1997. Let’s not jump the gun though. There are at least two major sticking points which really do have the potential to pour cold water over this Con-Lib romance.

1) The Liberal Democrats really are a democratic party, internally speaking. There’s a so-called “triple lock” that Nick Clegg would need to release in order to sign a deal with the Tories. Firstly, he needs approval from the Liberal Democrat members of parliament. Secondly, he would need the approval of the Lib Dem federal executive, the body of representatives that forms the administrative core of the party. Third and finally, and perhaps most crucially, the whole membership body of the Liberal Democrats would need to be balloted in a postal vote.

- Whilst I could see a situation where Nick Clegg and his front bench could persuade the executive committee and the Lib Dem MPs of the merits of making a deal which would a) blunt the Tories’ power in government to make brutal cuts and b) see some of the Lib Dems’ agenda actually be implemented, I suspect most of the Liberal Democrat members would not want to be seen dead in a coalition with the party that’s furthest away in terms of ideology.

2) The single most important policy for the Liberal Democrats to seek implementation of is electoral reform. If Britain changes its electoral system from the current first-past-the-post to proportional representation (PR), the Liberal Democrats would have more seats and more of a shot of forming a government. Let me demonstrate. The current system awarded the Liberal Democrats 57 seats for getting 23% of the vote share. Labour got 258 seats from 29% of the vote share. Under PR the Lib Dems would have got somewhere around 150 seats from this election. So you can see why they want electoral reform! I agree though, I think our current system is archaic and undemocratic, and actually turns people off politics.

- The reason this is important is because it is highly unlikely the Tories would agree to implement or try to implement an electoral system which would result in their parliamentary suicide. Proportional representation would make it difficult in the short-medium term for the Tories to be the party of government. The Conservatives are ideologically opposed to proportional representation and they believe that first-past-the-post, with some tinkering, is best for British democracy. Cameron himself said yesterday that the only ground they would concede on electoral reform would be to set up a commission to look into the matter – a ‘talking shop’ in effect.

These two sticking points are critical to keep in mind over the next few days. Whilst the media might have already made Prime Minister Cameron under a Tory/Liberal coalition a foregone conclusion, I wouldn’t hold my breath on this outcome. Gordon Brown has already offered a referendum on electoral reform should the Lib Dems go into a coalition with Labour. Unfortunately, for Labour to stay in power even with the Lib Dems’ seats, it would require support from the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Northern Irish Social Democratic & Labour Party (SDLP). A four-party coalition would in my opinion be more likely to lead to instability in government and the markets. Despite this fact, I now don’t see this as an impossibility.

When Nick Clegg realises that he won’t get the electoral reform his party prizes, and perhaps when the members of his party show him that they despise the idea of a pact with the Tories, he will consider forming some kind of deal with incumbent Labour. Without doubt, that would have its difficulties also – Clegg won’t want to be seen to prop up a government that lost an election, and a leader who is unpopular. But it’s the most natural political fit for the Lib Dems. And it would be the deal most likely to lead to electoral reform. Labour too would have to pay a higher price than just a referendum on electoral reform; it is highly likely Clegg would want Brown’s head to roll before he forms a coalition with Labour, and this would most likely mean that David Miliband, as Labour’s new leader, would be Britain’s unelected Prime Minister.

This leads to one final possible outcome. A second election within months. Gordon Brown has the right to stay on as PM until the outcome is clear. He also has the right to call another election if there isn’t such a clear outcome. Quite frankly, I doubt a second election would give the decisive result that Brown would look for. Labour is almost 50 seats behind the Tories, and they would be unlikely to win any seats back that it lost on Thursday night. The Tories need at least 20 more seats to form an outright majority government, and whilst that’s more of a possibility, if the country really wanted a Tory government they would have given the party those seats on Thursday.

This is indeed, as Winston Churchill said, “a riddle wrapped up in an enigma”. The days and weeks ahead will cause political uncertainty and this will be bad for the country. It looks very unlikely from where I’m sitting, that there will be a Tory/Liberal deal, and the alternative four-party pact to keep Labour in power is loaded with tension also. A second election is unlikely to create a clear outcome. British politics entered a new reality on Thursday, and it’s going to be very hard work to convert the democratic wishes of the British electorate into a stable government.

So the 2010 General Election resulted in a hung parliament. It’s a relief that the Conservatives didn’t win an outright majority on their own, but that is the only small comfort. Britain is in political disarray right now and it’s not at all clear who will be Prime Minister in 12 or 24 hours. The Conservatives are the biggest party in Parliament by number of seats, with Labour currently trailing around 40 seats behind. It’s hardly the big moment David Cameron was hoping for.

What comes next? Well Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat leader has already made a speech this morning suggesting that his first preference would be to support the Conservatives as a minority government. The Tories have got more seats and a higher portion of the vote share than Labour. Some people say this gives them a mandate to take over the government today. The constitutional convention says that Gordon Brown can either resign and concede defeat or can have the first attempt to form a coalition or minority government. It is not looking very good for Gordon Brown and Labour right now, and I’m sure senior aides in Downing Street are scrambling at this moment to see if there is any way, by any means, of keeping Labour in the seat of power.

David Cameron will be making a speech at 14.30 today, to outline how he sees his chances of forming a government. This could create the momentum and end up in an invite from Queen Elizabeth to attempt to form a government. That act would mean Gordon Brown has had the rug pulled out from underneath him. This scenario might mean Britain has a new Prime Minister by the end of this day. Other possible outcomes are possible, including Labour putting forward a more attractive package for the Liberal Democrats, which would of course include serious electoral reform. Potentially, Gordon Brown could step down as PM, making way for another Labour MP, someone like David Miliband to try to lead a coalition.

This was a hard night for Labour members all over the country. It hurt personally to listen to Nick Clegg on the steps of Lib Dem HQ saying he would back David Cameron first. This is not a Tory moment. The country is by majority, progressive in political outlook. Britain understands the need for activist government to stabilise the economy and continue making living standards and life chances in the country better for all over the next few years. We will recover, to be certain, but after 13 years of great Labour work for the country, this is a nervous moment for the movement. What comes next, we can’t be clear, but today, May 7th 2010 is going to go down in history as an important test for the party. Will we find a way to stay in power? Will we lose and lurch to the left, and therefore stay out of power for a long time?

Who knows. Nobody does right now. But to be a fly on the wall of the offices of the three party leaders would be fascinating.

On a personal note, congratulations to Gavin Shuker, a great new, young Labour member of Parliament for Luton south. Sadly, Mari Rees lost out to Stephen Crabb, Tory MP for my old home seat in Preseli Pembrokeshire, and he increased his majority from 600 to over 5,000.

How exciting! We’re less than 48 hours away from knowing what the result of 2010’s general election will be. The fact that it’s such an important election, as well as the reality that the polls throughout the four week campaign have remained flat and haven’t produced a clear winner, makes it even more exciting.

Due to Britain’s strange electoral reporting conventions, the full result may not be known until around 6 or 7am Friday morning, or perhaps even later if it comes down to a handful of seats making the overall decision. I for one hope we have a clear idea as to where the country is going by 1 or 2am, because I’m getting old (well I feel it at least!) and the days of all-nighters are long gone. Staying up for Obama’s election was great, and even taking into account the 5 hour time difference, the result was in by 3am GMT.

So what might happen tomorrow night and over the ensuing days? Nobody can say for certain. The polls are close, and it looks like there will be no overall winner. For the first time in 36 years, Britain might have a ‘hung Parliament’ where a coalition or minority government would be necessary.

I think one of the following outcomes is likely:

- David Cameron might eek out a tiny overall majority and become Prime Minister on Friday afternoon. This is my least favourite potential outcome.

- We have a hung Parliament and Gordon Brown would remain in Number 10 as a minority Prime Minister. I’d prefer Labour to be in power, but not like this: it won’t last and we’d need another election very soon. PM Stanley Baldwin lost his majority in December 1923 and didn’t leave until January the next year – and in this situation it’s possible that either Her Majesty would dissolve Parliament for new elections or invite Cameron or someone else to attempt to form a government.

- Hung Parliament and Gordon Brown invites Nick Clegg to form a centre-left coalition to run the country. I think this would be good for politics and good for the country, but I can’t see Clegg working with Brown, therefore:

- Hung Parliament and Clegg agrees to form a coalition with somebody else in the Labour Party (probably David Miliband). Political brinkmanship from Clegg, exciting political drama but a risky move. Of course the Queen can ask any MP to be PM, so it’s completely possible that Gordon Brown could continue to lead Labour and have David Miliband leading the country with Clegg in a coalition. This surely would not last very long, and again, we’d need another election (or maybe we’d be surprised and it might work out!). This would also irritate other potential contenders for the Labour leadership, including Ed Balls.

Whatever happens, the political class will wait with baited breath over the next ten days or so before Parliament is formally opened. By then, I hope we have a clear outcome and a stable government and PM. Instability won’t be good for the economy, and that in the end impacts on real lives. And we have challenges to get on and face, whoever the Prime Minister is on May 7th.